A Few Obvious Reactions

Institutional Buyers Of Bank And Thrift Stocks - The Gold Book















Get out of all of those bank stocks that were bought for dividend (as soon as you can break even on them). They slashed your payouts to nil. I think GE will be fine (very long term) with a dividend increase. Don't press your profit on DD (TAKE IT NOW!) Russia will be hot for awhile yet. I always like defensive tobacco (with an advancing high-yield dividend). People will have their cigs.

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Just a Thought- Check the Daily Volatility

Here's how to do that. Check the market's numbers an hour before the close. Then how much did it move in the last hour? Sell-off, buy-in, or steady as she goes? We want steady, no 100 point swings in the last hour + or -. Remember, it's a big money man's game. We don't want him over exuberent or crazy scared as we ride along.

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How's Your Volatility Tolerance Index?

Don't be in volatile situations if it curdles your stomach. Stay in Income and G & I. If you were stuck in a volatile holding, it went down 70-80%. (Unless it was a short.) Did you freak-out? If so, you sold it low. You lost double because it's up 100% since March! Some of my volatile stuff is +200% since then. That doesn't mean I'm even yet. Unless I cost-averaged, I'm still way down from where I bought in at the top. But 200% increases get you well eventually. Know your stomach for risk.

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Balancing Your Financial Research

I like to use some of the most aggressive "wizards" in conjunction with some of the more conservative analysts to come up with a modicum of sanity. For instance, Pitbull Investor's "Stock Report Card" is extremely aggressive. So I use them with fool.com (Motley Fool) for consensus. Also, tradingmarkets.com (Power Ratings, short term & aggressive) gets used with finance.yahoo.com; powerratings.net (Power Ratings, long term & somewhat aggressive) with moneycentral.msn.com. You get the idea, get a consensus. Guess what, if everyone likes a stock (yeah, even Cramer, with old numbers), it's probably alright. But don't over-analyze, thereby missing a boat. Gut-instinct is often a good thing if you are investing experienced.
For mutual funds disregard the last statements. smartmoney.com and morningstar.com are the definitive experts. If they agree, it will be a winner.
For foreign investing, pay heed to Wikipedia's "List of Countries by Public Debt". Stay away from (by populace) highly indebted nations.

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RUMINATIONS ON 06-01-2009 or )^_)!_@))(

It is not your stock broker's job to watch your portfolio. It is your job. Or it is the job of your high dollar investment consultant, who you pay a lot more than a broker.

Strive to outperform the benchmark (in bull and bear markets). YOU DON'T HAVE TO DOUBLE THE MARKET. If the market has returned 1.7% for the week and your portfolio has returned 1.8% you have done your job. If the market has returned -47% for the year and your portfolio has returned -40% you have done a fantastic job!

IT'S WORKED FOR SEVENTY + YEARS (the market)! Have you? Or do you know anything else that has?

Never be afraid to take a gain (even if you could have done sooo muuch better).

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Out of the Pool Please

Looks like the NASDAQ is going to end 9 or 10 straight weeks of gains. The Dow is going to have it's second losing week in the same time span. SELL ALL GROWTH STOCKS! (That means non-dividend payers.) Good gains are over until November.

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Frustration

Here's the most frustrating thing about market gains and losses: selling investment positions. If there is a gain recorded there is a tax liability. If there is a loss there is a loss. Can't win! There are no losses or gains until there is a liquidation. But how to lock in gains without liquidation? That is impossible.
Still, the stock market has worked for 75 years. What else has done that? Not I, for one.
I think that the only answer is an unlimited time horizon, (or) perpetuation of lineage (or species, therefor).

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Stock Market Bliss?

6 straight weeks of gains! That hadn't happened in 10 years! You believe that? Well it's a lie. Actually we haven't had 6 straight weeks of gains since the 1930's. Post- Depression obviously.
Granted three of the weeks were less than a 1% gain. The other were a 9% gain, a 7% gain and a 3% gain. Still- is there light at the end of the tunnel?

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