6 straight weeks of gains! That hadn't happened in 10 years! You believe that? Well it's a lie. Actually we haven't had 6 straight weeks of gains since the 1930's. Post- Depression obviously.
Granted three of the weeks were less than a 1% gain. The other were a 9% gain, a 7% gain and a 3% gain. Still- is there light at the end of the tunnel?
visit my web site here.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Friday, April 10, 2009
April (Stock Market) Fools
Before I start, I want to admit that I won't take my own advice.
The bottom will drop out of the stock market by the end of April. History says so. November to April are historically the best market months. After April, things will disintegrate toward a crash in September or October. (September is the worst month historically.) At best the summer and early fall are usually stagnant or flat. So the latest so-called good months went like this: November, 2008 was one of the worst, scary months ever. December was a normal rebound month. January and February, 2009 were garbage, and that is ominously unusual. March, at the end of the month, was good. April's going to be grrreat! LET'S GET FULLY INVESTED!
STOP
This year especially the market lies. The good months may linger through May, then watch out. I think that the DJIA will see 5000 in September or October. I hope that I'm wrong because I will still be 70% invested in September. I'm a dummy. What does Monk say? "I could be wrong but..." I hope the market is the 6 month precursor but...
SELL YOUR FEW GROWTH WINNERS BY NO LATER THAN THE END OF MAY.
So now we have a dilemma. Can't go all in cash because there's no interest accrual in money markets right now. I have to recommend Growth & Income Funds. They are selling very cheaply and they try to buy dividend (or Value) stocks and Growth stocks. Bank of America was once a value stock. Now it's a Growth stock. Your Growth & Income Fund didn't know that was going to happen. Who has good Growth & Income Funds? There are none right now statistically. American Funds is a good option if you don't mind "loaded" funds. Vanguard and Fidelity don't have many front loads. Those are the three largest (by assets) fund companies. They all have good expense ratios. I use SmartMoney.com to check mutual fund performances. A word of caution though. Don't pay attention to the 1-5 year performances. They are all bad (except Income funds) right now. I wish Smart Money showed 20 year stats. Another option might be a good corporate bond with a "make whole" provision. They want to tie your money up for so long though.
I wish I had some better options. Oh well, I was raised in the Chicago area. I know how to wait 'til next year (see Chicago Cubs baseball history).
visit my web site here.
The bottom will drop out of the stock market by the end of April. History says so. November to April are historically the best market months. After April, things will disintegrate toward a crash in September or October. (September is the worst month historically.) At best the summer and early fall are usually stagnant or flat. So the latest so-called good months went like this: November, 2008 was one of the worst, scary months ever. December was a normal rebound month. January and February, 2009 were garbage, and that is ominously unusual. March, at the end of the month, was good. April's going to be grrreat! LET'S GET FULLY INVESTED!
STOP
This year especially the market lies. The good months may linger through May, then watch out. I think that the DJIA will see 5000 in September or October. I hope that I'm wrong because I will still be 70% invested in September. I'm a dummy. What does Monk say? "I could be wrong but..." I hope the market is the 6 month precursor but...
SELL YOUR FEW GROWTH WINNERS BY NO LATER THAN THE END OF MAY.
So now we have a dilemma. Can't go all in cash because there's no interest accrual in money markets right now. I have to recommend Growth & Income Funds. They are selling very cheaply and they try to buy dividend (or Value) stocks and Growth stocks. Bank of America was once a value stock. Now it's a Growth stock. Your Growth & Income Fund didn't know that was going to happen. Who has good Growth & Income Funds? There are none right now statistically. American Funds is a good option if you don't mind "loaded" funds. Vanguard and Fidelity don't have many front loads. Those are the three largest (by assets) fund companies. They all have good expense ratios. I use SmartMoney.com to check mutual fund performances. A word of caution though. Don't pay attention to the 1-5 year performances. They are all bad (except Income funds) right now. I wish Smart Money showed 20 year stats. Another option might be a good corporate bond with a "make whole" provision. They want to tie your money up for so long though.
I wish I had some better options. Oh well, I was raised in the Chicago area. I know how to wait 'til next year (see Chicago Cubs baseball history).
visit my web site here.
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